In 2014, the Pew Research Center conducted a massive survey that consulted 1,896 experts from all walks of life on whether artificial intelligence would rob human work. However, this survey has yielded a ridiculous result: they do not know. Because the results of the survey were very different.
What is almost certain is that the rise of AI will lead to great changes in the labor market. Our best attitude towards this issue is to take it easy. After all, in the past 200 years, three technological revolutions have taught us that the development of science and technology will eliminate some jobs, but at the same time it will create new jobs. The emergence of internal combustion engines, electrification and information technology has brought about a large number of new jobs. The emergence of various new products has also made the economy more efficient and the people’s living standards have greatly improved.
"The rise of AI will follow the rules of the past and create a lot of new wealth for the society," said MIT professor Erik Brynjolfsson, who has been studying the impact of technology on business and productivity. However, one problem we cannot ignore is that the new wealth created by AI may not flow into the pockets of ordinary workers.
"Although AI will bring about a series of positives such as the expansion of market size, it will also cause polarization, and many people will be abandoned by the times. This is the real challenge we face," Brynjolfsson said in an interview.
Brynjolfsson’s idea won the support of the Obama administration. In a speech last week, Jason Furman, chief economist of the Obama administration and chair of the US Economic Advisory Committee, warned that the new AI-based automation technology is different from the automated process that humans experienced before.
"Of course, I'm not saying that AI will lead to massive unemployment," he said. Artificial intelligence will also create new jobs, but this process is very slow. In addition, no skilled workers will find that they have not been welcomed by the labor market. “This can not help but worry that the work that will be left to ordinary people in the future can only be the kind of dirty work that pays low wages,†Furman said.
Furman said that the latest national economic data made us realize that in the short term, AI “kills†old jobs faster than it “creates†new jobs. In addition, the rise of AI has brought two new trends. First, the biggest loser in the rise of AI is the low-skilled poor class. Analysts at the U.S. Economic Advisory Board believe that jobs under $20 an hour are most likely to be buried by AI, so low-income Americans will be the biggest victims.
Automated impact on different hourly pay groups
Second, the ever-declining demand for the US labor market is likely to shrink further under the blow of AI. Right now, the U.S. labor force participation has dropped to the lowest point in 60 years. If the labor market demands continue to increase, the low-skilled workers will be unable to take on new jobs created by AI.
American common labor force participation
These two new trends are indeed a bit disturbing. After all, after the Second World War, the four pillars of the national economy—the per capita GDP, labor productivity, job position, and household income—have grown steadily, and this thriving scene has also borrowed the power of technological development.
Post-war growth in the four pillars of the national economy
Researchers at MIT found that the development of digital technology has allowed the market to gradually create winner-take-all situations. The focus of wealth is no longer biased towards hard-working workers. In addition, labor-intensive industries born in the industrial revolution are being crushed by the new automation revolution, and the market demand for labor in the Internet era has gradually decreased. In the future, many low-skilled jobs such as bank tellers and ticket sellers will be crushed by artificial intelligence.
In addition, Furman also said that the era of artificial intelligence will not come soon, and ordinary people will not lose their jobs in the short term. However, this situation also caused Furman's concern, after all, the current status is not in line with the future trend, if the AI ​​revolution came too late, it will be a fatal blow to the US economy. Therefore, Furman believes that even if AI will destroy the original economic model, the United States must also accelerate the pace of embracing the new era.
Furman made this judgment for a reason. As the saying goes, long-term pain is not as short-term pain. Only in this way can productivity increase substantially. This will lead to rising wages for workers and the emergence of new jobs. “We have huge potential for growth, and compared to other areas, public investment in AI technology is still very small. Last year, the National Science Foundation invested only AI$ 200 million in AI, and in other areas Its investment has exceeded 2.7 billion U.S. dollars,†Furman said.
In addition to vigorously promoting the development of AI technology, we must also introduce new policies as soon as possible to achieve a balance in the labor market. Furman said that the government should take corresponding responsibility for the skills training of the labor force, employment assistance, tax standards, and subsidies for poor families.
Prof. Brynjolfsson said that although the rise of AI will increase polarization between rich and poor, things always have two sides. "We need to ensure the stability of the original social structure through policy adjustments," he said. "If AI really can increase the market cake, this goal can be achieved in theory."