Although the Fukushima nuclear accident and the public anxiety caused by Germany’s announcement of abandonment of nuclear power have been temporarily eased, questions about the future development of China’s nuclear power have not been resolved.
Recently, the reporter interviewed the former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission and Zhou Dadi, vice chairman of the China Energy Research Association. In his view, China’s nuclear power has adopted the latest revised standards of the IAEA, and has conducted a cautious site selection with high security. From the actual energy demand, nuclear power is still diversified. The alternative part.
Zhou Dadi believes that the nuclear routes of various countries in the world are affected by multiple factors such as politics and culture, and China’s nuclear power policy cannot follow suit. At present, China's biggest problem in the development of nuclear power is not technology, but decision-making ability and decision-making mechanism; the biggest obstacle is the crisis of confidence.
Nuclear Power: Multiple Patterns Cannot Be Replaced Reporter: How do you see the status and role of nuclear power in China's energy structure?
Zhou Dadi: For China, nuclear power is not only an important power generation technology, but also an important primary energy source. China has become the world’s largest energy consumer, and its energy structure is more focused on coal. At present, even if it is a large coal country in the world, the proportion of coal in the energy structure is seldom higher than 20%, while China’s coal accounts for more than 70% of primary energy consumption, which is very high.
From the perspective of China’s energy demand in the future, although there are various predictions, it is basically the mainstream view that by 2020, China’s energy consumption will reach about 5 billion tons of standard coal or even more, and the consumption in 2010 will be 32. Billion tons, then add 2 billion standard coal on this basis, rely on what? In addition to coal, natural gas is still room, but is expected to only increase from 100 billion cubic meters to 300 billion cubic meters, which is to reach 400 million tons of standard coal, The increase is 300 million tons of standard coal; oil, the current output has reached a peak, in the long run, the future will be reduced; hydropower, there are currently 200 million kilowatts without development, can increase 300 million -400 million tons of standard coal. On the whole, the potential for conventional energy growth in China is limited. How to improve energy supply and improve energy structure depends on the possibilities.
Although we have high hopes for renewable energy, from the current situation, China can use 1 billion kilowatts of wind power. Even if all wind power is developed, it can only provide 600 million tons of standard coal energy. But in fact, there are technical problems in all development; solar energy is abundant, but solar energy will be the most expensive for a long time in the future, and 100 million kilowatts of battery energy can only provide 40 million tons of standard coal, and we planned 1 billion. Kilowatts of solar energy is also 400 million tons of standard coal.
To meet future energy needs, many people believe that the development of coal should be strengthened. However, the intensity of the development of coal in our country has far exceeded that of other countries in the world, resulting in continuous mine accidents. Regardless of development and management techniques, it is difficult to achieve safety and effectiveness under a large number of underground mining and complex geological conditions. Of course, in the short term, it is possible to increase the production capacity of coal, but from the perspective of international experience, it will not be possible to raise it substantially in the future. It may even reduce production due to safety issues, ground destruction, and ecological problems. The number of deaths caused by coal mining has averaged 10,000 in the past and is now more than 2,000 each year. It also has a long-term impact on geology and is untenable for decades. What's more, there are various secondary pollutions that cause pollution to water and the atmosphere, leading to increased cancer and premature death of humans.
Therefore, nuclear power is not a problem of power generation but a supply of primary energy. On the whole, in the current energy balance, nuclear power can be said to be a very important primary energy source. It is an economic, efficient, and stable energy source. It is more superior to wind power and solar energy from an investment perspective.
For China, we need nuclear power to provide more than 10% of primary energy. If this part of energy is provided by wind power, 400-500 million kilowatts of wind power will be needed, which is impossible under current conditions. If solar energy is provided, 100 million kilowatts of nuclear power needs 600-700 million kilowatts of replacement, which is not easy. Biomass energy is less feasible.
Therefore, in order to ensure energy supply, it should be diversified as a whole and reduce dependence on coal. Of course, if China has a lot of clean and efficient energy, it can not develop nuclear power. However, at present, our country has to increase energy demand in recent years. To protect the environment, it is impossible to import large quantities of electricity. Therefore, nuclear power is highly efficient and safe, and to some extent it cannot be replaced.
China's nuclear power policy should not follow the trend: After Germany abandoned nuclear weapons, how do you think China's nuclear power should go?
Zhou Dadi: Germany gave up nuclear power and had its own complicated reasons. First of all, the German people have long been under the political background of opposition between East and West. They have long been affected by nuclear terror propaganda and formed a perception of “nuclear insecurityâ€. This kind of knowledge is deeply ingrained. Secondly, from the perspective of Germany's energy situation, Germany has already achieved high quality of energy, and energy consumption has reached a peak. It is not necessary to increase supply in the future, and even with the continuous advancement of technology, it may also reduce energy consumption. Therefore, their current new energy demand can be partially solved through renewable energy. In addition, Germany's decision to abandon its nuclear program is also a political decision of the current government. Whether the next government will insist on it remains to be seen.
In fact, it is only Germany and Italy that have announced their abandonment of nuclear power, and they do not rule out the import of nuclear power from France. Major nuclear powers such as the United States, Japan, France and Britain did not give up nuclear power, and even reaffirmed the safety of nuclear power and expressed their desire to continue to develop nuclear power. China’s nuclear power policy should not follow suit.
Reporter: What do you think is the biggest difficulty facing the current development of nuclear power and how can it be overcome?
Zhou Dadi: I think the biggest difficulty is not technology, but decision-making ability and decision-making mechanism. There is now a crisis of trust in government and theory on the issue of nuclear power. This is the biggest obstacle. Due to the complexity of nuclear power technology and the fact that scientific facts are not easily recognized by ordinary people, and the scientific nature of the media is insufficient, this crisis of confidence has emerged.
In fact, nuclear power is not a matter of unreliable or insecure technology. It is how to treat nuclear power after an accident. The Fukushima nuclear accident shows that nuclear power facilities also have the possibility of major accidents under major natural disasters, and any safety is relative. But precisely because of this, nuclear accidents are also very limited, only three times. These accidents also allow everyone to carefully summarize what to do if an accident causes an overdesign event. It is as if the progress of the safety systems of automobiles and airplanes is constantly summarizing on the basis of the constant discovery of new problems.
The Chernobyl nuclear accident has promoted the choice of reactor types and improved the operational norm of nuclear power. There has been no possibility of nuclear accidents caused by man-made continuous illegal operations; the Fukushima nuclear accident has made people realize that natural disasters also It will lead to the occurrence of an over-design event, such as the failure to access the electricity caused by the tsunami and the explosion of hydrogen gas. Now, there are already countermeasures against flooding problems, hydrogen treatment, electricity access problems, and waterproofing problems for the Fukushima nuclear accident.
In fact, before nuclear power had already carried out a lot of safety considerations in advance, its safety standards were higher than other power generation facilities; and now it has a higher safety consideration, so it does not mean that nuclear power technology can not be improved, but the lack of scientific decision-making The process is socially questionable and it is easy to over-excite.
To overcome this problem, on the one hand, scientists and engineers should make countermeasures to the risks that they can think of, and provide technical guarantees and enough information. On the other hand, there must be a scientific level of decision-making, and policy makers should have an estimate of safety issues. ,Unify understanding, reach consensus, and popularize knowledge to prevent talk of nuclear change.
China’s nuclear safety standards are more stringent than those of other countries. Reporter: What is the biggest issue of China's nuclear safety? Zhou Dadi: The issue of nuclear safety can be seen in the 2008 report of the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation presented to the UN General Assembly. It is a report on the impact of nuclear radiation made after considering the effects of technology, ecology, and medicine for 20 years after the Chernobyl accident in 1986.
The report's survey of public health status in the three countries most affected by radiation showed that the incidence of thyroid cancer increased in children and adolescents who suffered radiation in 1986. This is the only cause of thyroid cancer caused by radiation. Illness.
Between 1991 and 2005, there were more than 6,000 cancer cases in four regions, Belarus and Ukraine, which were most affected by radiation in the Russian Federation. By 2005, 15 of these cases had been confirmed as very serious cases. A proportion of cases may have been due to drinking milk contaminated with the short-lived radioactive substance iodine-131 leaked from the 1986 accident.
Even in the three areas most affected by radiation, the harm caused by radiation to the public is still slight. In Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine, the former Soviet Union’s government was responsible for the high 铯-137 content of longevity in soil. It is identified as "contaminated area". During the 20 years from 1986 to 2005, the annual average radiation exposure in these areas was roughly equal to the radiation received during a medical computed tomography (CT) scan (about 9 Hosse). The average nuclear radiation in the world’s natural background is 2.4 HRS, and water and mines in many regions have higher radiation.
The actual damage caused by such a nuclear accident with a stack of explosions, jets, and large-scale proliferation is nothing more than that. Due to the Cold War mentality, the accident was strongly exaggerated, causing great psychological and social impact.
Our country has adopted the revised nuclear safety standards of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors), and only the countries of the world and Pakistan have adopted this standard. China is still on this basis and has raised the standards for discharge into water. It can be said that China’s nuclear safety standards are more stringent than those of all countries. It can be said that it is a “zero acceptance†of nuclear emissions, and that no major nuclear accident can be ensured. .
Therefore, we must have a scientific attitude towards nuclear power and do not want to be absolute. Of course, China's nuclear safety alone is not enough to rely on safe technology. We must work hard to further improve safety and security in terms of management and quality control. Of course, physical preparations, mobilization mechanisms, and external assistance mechanisms must also be made. Even if it does not happen in 100 years, it must be prevented.
Reporter: In the layout of nuclear power stations, how do you think it should be considered?
Zhou Dadi: Now China's nuclear power sites are very strict. If we do not build nuclear power facilities on the earthquake belt, Japan is also an earthquake zone. They are also built; they are not built on the beach, and Japan is an island. They are all built on the coast; , Debris flow, good water source protection, emergency water sources. It can be said to be a good, good and foolproof location.
But there must also be scientific understanding. It is not that landlocked people cannot build nuclear power, nor does it mean that population density cannot be built. This is all relative. There are areas where the population is small and the forest has water sources. The development of nuclear power in China will be inevitable in landlocked development because coal and gas are lacking in many places inland. It should be planned on the premise of security.
Reporter: In terms of technology selection, what strategy do you think should be adopted?
Zhou Dadi: With good technology, good technology is used. The second generation and the third generation of nuclear power are all artificially divided. In fact, technology has always been improving. Three generations of technology have advantages in 72-hour power outages, but it's not that current technology is not safe, and now China's technologies are adopted. Verified, it is already more advanced than other countries, there is no need to wait until the latest technology and then develop nuclear power. We should actively develop nuclear power and promote new technologies. However, we must not only talk about economy, encouragement, but recognize the safety of existing technologies, and constantly improve and update the technology according to the steps of scientific development. But security depends not just on technology.
Recently, the reporter interviewed the former director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission and Zhou Dadi, vice chairman of the China Energy Research Association. In his view, China’s nuclear power has adopted the latest revised standards of the IAEA, and has conducted a cautious site selection with high security. From the actual energy demand, nuclear power is still diversified. The alternative part.
Zhou Dadi believes that the nuclear routes of various countries in the world are affected by multiple factors such as politics and culture, and China’s nuclear power policy cannot follow suit. At present, China's biggest problem in the development of nuclear power is not technology, but decision-making ability and decision-making mechanism; the biggest obstacle is the crisis of confidence.
Nuclear Power: Multiple Patterns Cannot Be Replaced Reporter: How do you see the status and role of nuclear power in China's energy structure?
Zhou Dadi: For China, nuclear power is not only an important power generation technology, but also an important primary energy source. China has become the world’s largest energy consumer, and its energy structure is more focused on coal. At present, even if it is a large coal country in the world, the proportion of coal in the energy structure is seldom higher than 20%, while China’s coal accounts for more than 70% of primary energy consumption, which is very high.
From the perspective of China’s energy demand in the future, although there are various predictions, it is basically the mainstream view that by 2020, China’s energy consumption will reach about 5 billion tons of standard coal or even more, and the consumption in 2010 will be 32. Billion tons, then add 2 billion standard coal on this basis, rely on what? In addition to coal, natural gas is still room, but is expected to only increase from 100 billion cubic meters to 300 billion cubic meters, which is to reach 400 million tons of standard coal, The increase is 300 million tons of standard coal; oil, the current output has reached a peak, in the long run, the future will be reduced; hydropower, there are currently 200 million kilowatts without development, can increase 300 million -400 million tons of standard coal. On the whole, the potential for conventional energy growth in China is limited. How to improve energy supply and improve energy structure depends on the possibilities.
Although we have high hopes for renewable energy, from the current situation, China can use 1 billion kilowatts of wind power. Even if all wind power is developed, it can only provide 600 million tons of standard coal energy. But in fact, there are technical problems in all development; solar energy is abundant, but solar energy will be the most expensive for a long time in the future, and 100 million kilowatts of battery energy can only provide 40 million tons of standard coal, and we planned 1 billion. Kilowatts of solar energy is also 400 million tons of standard coal.
To meet future energy needs, many people believe that the development of coal should be strengthened. However, the intensity of the development of coal in our country has far exceeded that of other countries in the world, resulting in continuous mine accidents. Regardless of development and management techniques, it is difficult to achieve safety and effectiveness under a large number of underground mining and complex geological conditions. Of course, in the short term, it is possible to increase the production capacity of coal, but from the perspective of international experience, it will not be possible to raise it substantially in the future. It may even reduce production due to safety issues, ground destruction, and ecological problems. The number of deaths caused by coal mining has averaged 10,000 in the past and is now more than 2,000 each year. It also has a long-term impact on geology and is untenable for decades. What's more, there are various secondary pollutions that cause pollution to water and the atmosphere, leading to increased cancer and premature death of humans.
Therefore, nuclear power is not a problem of power generation but a supply of primary energy. On the whole, in the current energy balance, nuclear power can be said to be a very important primary energy source. It is an economic, efficient, and stable energy source. It is more superior to wind power and solar energy from an investment perspective.
For China, we need nuclear power to provide more than 10% of primary energy. If this part of energy is provided by wind power, 400-500 million kilowatts of wind power will be needed, which is impossible under current conditions. If solar energy is provided, 100 million kilowatts of nuclear power needs 600-700 million kilowatts of replacement, which is not easy. Biomass energy is less feasible.
Therefore, in order to ensure energy supply, it should be diversified as a whole and reduce dependence on coal. Of course, if China has a lot of clean and efficient energy, it can not develop nuclear power. However, at present, our country has to increase energy demand in recent years. To protect the environment, it is impossible to import large quantities of electricity. Therefore, nuclear power is highly efficient and safe, and to some extent it cannot be replaced.
China's nuclear power policy should not follow the trend: After Germany abandoned nuclear weapons, how do you think China's nuclear power should go?
Zhou Dadi: Germany gave up nuclear power and had its own complicated reasons. First of all, the German people have long been under the political background of opposition between East and West. They have long been affected by nuclear terror propaganda and formed a perception of “nuclear insecurityâ€. This kind of knowledge is deeply ingrained. Secondly, from the perspective of Germany's energy situation, Germany has already achieved high quality of energy, and energy consumption has reached a peak. It is not necessary to increase supply in the future, and even with the continuous advancement of technology, it may also reduce energy consumption. Therefore, their current new energy demand can be partially solved through renewable energy. In addition, Germany's decision to abandon its nuclear program is also a political decision of the current government. Whether the next government will insist on it remains to be seen.
In fact, it is only Germany and Italy that have announced their abandonment of nuclear power, and they do not rule out the import of nuclear power from France. Major nuclear powers such as the United States, Japan, France and Britain did not give up nuclear power, and even reaffirmed the safety of nuclear power and expressed their desire to continue to develop nuclear power. China’s nuclear power policy should not follow suit.
Reporter: What do you think is the biggest difficulty facing the current development of nuclear power and how can it be overcome?
Zhou Dadi: I think the biggest difficulty is not technology, but decision-making ability and decision-making mechanism. There is now a crisis of trust in government and theory on the issue of nuclear power. This is the biggest obstacle. Due to the complexity of nuclear power technology and the fact that scientific facts are not easily recognized by ordinary people, and the scientific nature of the media is insufficient, this crisis of confidence has emerged.
In fact, nuclear power is not a matter of unreliable or insecure technology. It is how to treat nuclear power after an accident. The Fukushima nuclear accident shows that nuclear power facilities also have the possibility of major accidents under major natural disasters, and any safety is relative. But precisely because of this, nuclear accidents are also very limited, only three times. These accidents also allow everyone to carefully summarize what to do if an accident causes an overdesign event. It is as if the progress of the safety systems of automobiles and airplanes is constantly summarizing on the basis of the constant discovery of new problems.
The Chernobyl nuclear accident has promoted the choice of reactor types and improved the operational norm of nuclear power. There has been no possibility of nuclear accidents caused by man-made continuous illegal operations; the Fukushima nuclear accident has made people realize that natural disasters also It will lead to the occurrence of an over-design event, such as the failure to access the electricity caused by the tsunami and the explosion of hydrogen gas. Now, there are already countermeasures against flooding problems, hydrogen treatment, electricity access problems, and waterproofing problems for the Fukushima nuclear accident.
In fact, before nuclear power had already carried out a lot of safety considerations in advance, its safety standards were higher than other power generation facilities; and now it has a higher safety consideration, so it does not mean that nuclear power technology can not be improved, but the lack of scientific decision-making The process is socially questionable and it is easy to over-excite.
To overcome this problem, on the one hand, scientists and engineers should make countermeasures to the risks that they can think of, and provide technical guarantees and enough information. On the other hand, there must be a scientific level of decision-making, and policy makers should have an estimate of safety issues. ,Unify understanding, reach consensus, and popularize knowledge to prevent talk of nuclear change.
China’s nuclear safety standards are more stringent than those of other countries. Reporter: What is the biggest issue of China's nuclear safety? Zhou Dadi: The issue of nuclear safety can be seen in the 2008 report of the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation presented to the UN General Assembly. It is a report on the impact of nuclear radiation made after considering the effects of technology, ecology, and medicine for 20 years after the Chernobyl accident in 1986.
The report's survey of public health status in the three countries most affected by radiation showed that the incidence of thyroid cancer increased in children and adolescents who suffered radiation in 1986. This is the only cause of thyroid cancer caused by radiation. Illness.
Between 1991 and 2005, there were more than 6,000 cancer cases in four regions, Belarus and Ukraine, which were most affected by radiation in the Russian Federation. By 2005, 15 of these cases had been confirmed as very serious cases. A proportion of cases may have been due to drinking milk contaminated with the short-lived radioactive substance iodine-131 leaked from the 1986 accident.
Even in the three areas most affected by radiation, the harm caused by radiation to the public is still slight. In Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine, the former Soviet Union’s government was responsible for the high 铯-137 content of longevity in soil. It is identified as "contaminated area". During the 20 years from 1986 to 2005, the annual average radiation exposure in these areas was roughly equal to the radiation received during a medical computed tomography (CT) scan (about 9 Hosse). The average nuclear radiation in the world’s natural background is 2.4 HRS, and water and mines in many regions have higher radiation.
The actual damage caused by such a nuclear accident with a stack of explosions, jets, and large-scale proliferation is nothing more than that. Due to the Cold War mentality, the accident was strongly exaggerated, causing great psychological and social impact.
Our country has adopted the revised nuclear safety standards of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors), and only the countries of the world and Pakistan have adopted this standard. China is still on this basis and has raised the standards for discharge into water. It can be said that China’s nuclear safety standards are more stringent than those of all countries. It can be said that it is a “zero acceptance†of nuclear emissions, and that no major nuclear accident can be ensured. .
Therefore, we must have a scientific attitude towards nuclear power and do not want to be absolute. Of course, China's nuclear safety alone is not enough to rely on safe technology. We must work hard to further improve safety and security in terms of management and quality control. Of course, physical preparations, mobilization mechanisms, and external assistance mechanisms must also be made. Even if it does not happen in 100 years, it must be prevented.
Reporter: In the layout of nuclear power stations, how do you think it should be considered?
Zhou Dadi: Now China's nuclear power sites are very strict. If we do not build nuclear power facilities on the earthquake belt, Japan is also an earthquake zone. They are also built; they are not built on the beach, and Japan is an island. They are all built on the coast; , Debris flow, good water source protection, emergency water sources. It can be said to be a good, good and foolproof location.
But there must also be scientific understanding. It is not that landlocked people cannot build nuclear power, nor does it mean that population density cannot be built. This is all relative. There are areas where the population is small and the forest has water sources. The development of nuclear power in China will be inevitable in landlocked development because coal and gas are lacking in many places inland. It should be planned on the premise of security.
Reporter: In terms of technology selection, what strategy do you think should be adopted?
Zhou Dadi: With good technology, good technology is used. The second generation and the third generation of nuclear power are all artificially divided. In fact, technology has always been improving. Three generations of technology have advantages in 72-hour power outages, but it's not that current technology is not safe, and now China's technologies are adopted. Verified, it is already more advanced than other countries, there is no need to wait until the latest technology and then develop nuclear power. We should actively develop nuclear power and promote new technologies. However, we must not only talk about economy, encouragement, but recognize the safety of existing technologies, and constantly improve and update the technology according to the steps of scientific development. But security depends not just on technology.
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