McKinsey predicts LED development trend in the next 10 years

According to a market research report recently released by McKinsey, the LED market share will continue to climb in the next 10 years and will reach 110 billion euros in 2020. This article selected the analysis and prediction of LED backlighting, LED vehicle lighting, and LED general lighting in its report.

Figure 1: Market share forecast for 2010-2020 LED backlighting, general lighting, and automotive lighting

Figure 2: Production growth forecast for 2010-2020 LED backlighting, general lighting, and automotive lighting

McKinsey: 2010-2020 LED backlight, automotive lighting and general lighting ratio and output value forecast

project

year 2010

2016

2010-2016
CAGR

2020

2016-2020
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CAGR

led
Backlight

proportion

47%

98%

100%

output value

2 billion euros

4 billion euros

13%

2 billion euros

-16%

LED vehicle lighting

proportion

12%

20%

34%

output value

2 billion euros

3 billion euros

15%

6 billion euros

16%

led
General lighting

proportion

7%

43%

64%

output value

3 billion euros

330 billion euros

46%

56 billion euros

15%

The successful layout of the backlight market: The LED market first appeared in 1960 and was used in a few low-brightness red indicators in several types of electronic products. With the advancement of technology, LED has entered applications with high brightness white light requirements: mobile phone backlight in 1995, laptop backlight in 2005, and large-size screen backlight in 2009. Due to the strong investments of Korean and Taiwanese flat panel makers, the LED backlight market has accounted for nearly half of the market in 2010 and is expected to reach its peak in 2016, ie close to 100%. Afterwards, the market may shift from LCD TV screens to OLED TV screens. Since OLED TV screens do not require backlighting, the market for LED backlights will be reduced from 4 billion euros in 2016 to 2 billion euros.

Vehicle lighting continues to grow: Thanks to the application of red LEDs to instrument and brake lights, the use of LED lights for vehicles reached 12% of the market in 2010. In order to increase road safety, the European Commission decided to force the installation of commercial vehicles on daylight in 2011, and large vehicles will also require installation in 2012. This is a good LED light. However, due to technical obstacles, ultra-high brightness LED lamps cannot compete with low-priced halogen lamps and xenon lamps.

General lighting is the key: In 2010, LED's share in the general lighting market is only 7%, and high cost is still the main reason. However, due to its obvious advantages compared to traditional lighting, three primary colors (RGB) LEDs have already penetrated very well in architectural lighting, and white LEDs are also heating up. The feature that LED can greatly save energy consumption is in line with the global energy conservation trend. It is expected that in 2016 it will occupy 43% of the market share and in 2020 it will increase to 64%.