On November 4, 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments held news conferences to phase out incandescent lamps and issued an incandescent lamp elimination schedule. In addition, the state will impose levy on the consumption of incandescent lamps and provide policy support to the energy-saving lamp industry. Stimulated by this news, the recent led stocks rose across the board.
Securities institutions have also been optimistic about the long-term market of the LED industry, that after the elimination of the incandescent lamp roadmap is released, LED subsidy securities will be introduced soon, and 2012 will be the first year of the LED lighting market. However, in the fourth quarter of 2011, there were disagreements among the agencies on LED performance. Wealth Securities believes that monetary policy has begun to loosen, and the elimination of the publication of incandescent light roadmaps and the expected increase in LED lighting subsidy policy will accelerate the expansion of the LED market, and the third quarter should be the industry's bottom performance. Industrial Securities believes that the current LED industry still faces the common problems of over-investment, unbalanced supply and demand structure, rapidly falling product prices, declining gross profit margins, and slowing down of the overall industry growth. The order situation has not seen any significant improvement, and the industry climate remains relatively light. LED lighting It is still a structural highlight of the industry, but the proportion of LED lighting in the industry is still low, and it has limited effect on the industry. The basic outlook in the fourth quarter is still low.
Wealth Securities: The industry is approaching a reversal of the spring market
Wealth Securities believes that the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments hold special press conferences to highlight the government’s high priority for lighting energy conservation. The National Development and Reform Commission publishes a large number of notices and announcements each year, but there are only few press conferences held alone. This reflects the government’s great importance to lighting energy conservation.
It is expected that the LED lighting subsidy policy will be launched later. The recent outstanding performance of LED-related stocks has demonstrated the stimulation of the above policies. The market has also circulated that the subsidy policy on LED general lighting may be about to be introduced soon. After the policy of eliminating incandescent lamps is expected to be clear, the government will propose countermeasures for alternative light sources. As one of the key development directions of China's seven strategic emerging industries, the LED industry should receive the financial support from the government in the future. It is expected that the introduction of the subsidy policy for LED general lighting is approaching.
The official has approved the technical and economic feasibility of LED general lighting. The “roadmapâ€, in particular the LED lighting subsidy policy to be launched later, shows that the government has recognized that the domestic LED industry has the technical and economic conditions and basis for large-scale promotion in the general lighting field. The application of LEDs in the field of general lighting is about to accelerate.
For the development of the LED industry, Fortune Securities believes that: (1) From the current policy trends, monetary policy has begun to loosen, and the elimination of the publication of the incandescent light roadmap and the expected increase in LED lighting subsidies will accelerate the expansion of the LED market. The grassroots survey of some downstream companies also shows that LED lighting demand and display demand have been stabilizing and picking up since October, and only the backlight demand is still not ideal. Comprehensive analysis, the third quarter of this year should be the LED industry's performance lows. (2) Experience from the overheated investment promoted by various local governments in 2010 to the brutal reshuffling of the industry in 2-3 quarters of 2011. The understanding of the LED industry in all sectors should be more rational, and the overall development environment of the industry is constantly being optimized. Moreover, technological advances and fierce competition in 2011 have led to a significant decline in the prices of LED terminal products. Since 2012, the general lighting market will open at an accelerated pace, and the spring of the industry is approaching.
Ping An Securities: Eliminating incandescent lamps favors the LED industry
The sluggish LED industry ushered in the dawn. Due to the low penetration of the lighting market and the sluggishness of the display and backlight markets, LED demand is weak. Affected by the pressure of release of production capacity and the continued decline in the prices of LED products, profitability weakened in January-September 2011 despite an increase in revenue year-on-year. With the elimination of incandescent lamps and subsidies for energy-efficient lighting products, the LED lighting market is expected to start faster.
Long-term optimistic about the LED industry, 2012 is a key node. The LED has high luminous efficiency and consumes less power under the same illumination. With white LED lighting, it can save more than 50% energy compared with fluorescent lamps and more than 80% energy than incandescent lamps. And it has a long life, does not contain mercury, no pollution, good security advantages, is recognized as the third generation of electric light source. In 2012, major countries in the United States, Europe, and Japan will gradually or completely eliminate incandescent lamps, which lays the foundation for the popularity of LEDs. At the same time, from the perspective of the downward trend in prices, the cost-effectiveness of white LEDs will show their advantages in the field of commercial lighting. In 2012, it is expected to become the first year of popularity of LED lighting.
UBS Securities: Terminal Subsidy Now
Energy-saving lamps replace incandescent lamps at the low end, and LEDs replace medium-high-end energy-saving lamps. In accordance with the Development and Reform Commission's "Canceling Incandescent Lamps Roadmap" (draft for comment), in 2012, incandescent lamps of more than 100W were banned, and incandescent lamps for general lighting were banned in 2016. UBS Securities believes that energy-saving lamps will begin to substitute at the low end; if the terminal price is reduced by 40-50%, the demand for LED general lighting will increase by 3-5 times. In the mid-to-high end, LED lighting penetration is expected to be less than 3 at present. The rapid growth of more than 10%.
Subsidies are crucial to changing industry expectations and the impact is multi-level. It is estimated that the energy subsidies for lighting will reach 8-100 billion yuan in the next 5 years. UBS Securities believes that: Price reduction stimulates demand; subsidized procurement bidding is expected to drive down market prices and stimulate greater demand.
It is expected to benefit from the high-power LED industry chain. UBS Securities believes that subsidies are expected to drive shipments of lighting terminal products. Downlights, spotlights, street lamps and other high-end LED products are expected to be subsidized; however, the impact of subsidies on packaging and chip manufacturers will be different: The power (single power >0.5W) industrial chain is expected to achieve a higher volume of shipments, but the low-power (<0.5W, display) industrial chain may not benefit significantly.
Industrial Securities: Fundamental outlook is still sluggish, and policies appear positive
Near the end of the year, the policy has entered an intensive period, and the market is expected to increase the country’s support policies for the LED industry. The National Development and Reform Commission is scheduled to hold a press conference on the elimination of incandescent light roadmaps on the morning of November 4 (Friday), 2011 to introduce relevant contents of the "Notice on the gradual ban on the import and sale of incandescent lamps for general lighting". The green lighting industry policy is ushering in Good.
In addition, “The 12th Five-Year Plan for Energy-saving and Environmental Protection Industry Development†may be promulgated at the Seventh National Environmental Protection Conference. It is rumored that LED lighting is expected to formally be included in the subsidy range. Before the end of the year, the first round of LED lighting product subsidies will be issued. 8 billion yuan, first for product subsidies for indoor lighting and commercial lighting, such as downlights, spotlights, and then gradually expand the intensity and scope of subsidies.
Industrial Securities believes that the policy side, if the country in the LED industry is relatively low period, the introduction of related support policies, especially for LED lighting subsidies policy, will help boost confidence in the industry, encourage the orderly development of the industry, China's official replacement of incandescent lamps The road map, together with countries such as Europe, USA, Japan and other countries, entered the substantive phase of the elimination of incandescent lamps, which is beneficial to the long-term development of the incandescent lamp alternative energy-saving lamps and LED lamps-related industries. Fundamentally, the LED industry is still facing the common problems of over-investment, imbalance of supply and demand structure, rapid decline in product prices, decline in gross profit margin, and slowdown in the overall growth of the industry. In the fourth quarter, the order situation has not seen any significant improvement, and the industry is still bleak. LED lighting is still the structural highlight of the industry. Consistent with our judgment in the in-depth report, LED lighting clearly shows signs of start-up. LED lighting penetration is rapidly increasing with decreasing lighting costs, but LED lighting still accounts for a relatively low proportion of the industry. , It has limited effect on the industry.
Industrial Securities believes that it is currently possible to focus on companies with scale advantages, technological advantages, and early involvement in LED lighting applications. We have long been optimistic about the development prospects of China's LED industry and maintain its “recommended†investment rating for LED sub-sectors.
Hongyuan Securities: Concerned about the introduction of the LED industry support policy
From the perspective of market performance, the current LED sector stocks exhibited a clear oversold rebound feature. The LED industry involves upstream substrate epitaxy and chip, midstream packaging and downstream applications. The A-share LED sector is involved in the shares of 26 listed companies. Since the beginning of this year, most stock prices have been reduced by more than 30%. Today's daily limit of nine, the increase of more than 8% of the 11 to form a wave of more obvious oversold rebound market.
From the fundamental analysis, LED replacement is the trend of the times. All along, incandescent lamps have been eliminated and LED lighting subsidy policies are expected and not far away. The only uncertainty is the specific time. This process will be accompanied by the introduction of the national support policy, the increase in the production capacity of LED lighting products and the continued decline in prices.
From the policy retrospective, the State Council issued the "12th Five-Year Plan for Comprehensive Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction" in the early stage. Green energy-saving retrofits, demonstration projects for the industrialization of energy-saving technologies, and projects for energy-saving products that benefit people are listed as key energy-saving projects. Explicitly pointed out that it is necessary to accelerate energy-saving renovation of facilities, strictly manage energy use, and guide consumer behavior, and promote the use of high-efficiency energy-saving appliances and lighting products among residents. And the "semiconductor lighting" included in the "intensify energy-saving emission reduction technology industrialization demonstration" project. As we clearly pointed out in the fourth quarter strategy report on September 30, a number of guiding policies on semiconductor lighting are expected to be introduced in the fourth quarter, and the Ministry of Finance is planning to subsidize semiconductor lighting products with the NDRC and other competent authorities. Therefore, this incident is in line with expectations.
Hongyuan Securities believes that the LED industry is still in a period of rapid development, and the overall income scale of the industry is continuously growing. The reduction of product prices is one of the preconditions for universal application. In addition, the current LED industry in China still has a structural oversupply factor. The overall decline in short-term profitability is inevitable. The previous stock price adjustment has basically reflected this fact. At present, the overall valuation of the industry is at a low level, and the overall dynamic PE in 2011/2012 is 28.8x/20.8x respectively. The fulfillment of policy-friendly information is expected to bring about short-term trading opportunities. Later-stage support policies will help increase the overall demand of the industry, and will have long-term benefits for the growth of industry performance. Temporarily gave a rating on the sector holdings, and suggested actively concerned about the introduction of follow-up policy details.
Securities institutions have also been optimistic about the long-term market of the LED industry, that after the elimination of the incandescent lamp roadmap is released, LED subsidy securities will be introduced soon, and 2012 will be the first year of the LED lighting market. However, in the fourth quarter of 2011, there were disagreements among the agencies on LED performance. Wealth Securities believes that monetary policy has begun to loosen, and the elimination of the publication of incandescent light roadmaps and the expected increase in LED lighting subsidy policy will accelerate the expansion of the LED market, and the third quarter should be the industry's bottom performance. Industrial Securities believes that the current LED industry still faces the common problems of over-investment, unbalanced supply and demand structure, rapidly falling product prices, declining gross profit margins, and slowing down of the overall industry growth. The order situation has not seen any significant improvement, and the industry climate remains relatively light. LED lighting It is still a structural highlight of the industry, but the proportion of LED lighting in the industry is still low, and it has limited effect on the industry. The basic outlook in the fourth quarter is still low.
Wealth Securities: The industry is approaching a reversal of the spring market
Wealth Securities believes that the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments hold special press conferences to highlight the government’s high priority for lighting energy conservation. The National Development and Reform Commission publishes a large number of notices and announcements each year, but there are only few press conferences held alone. This reflects the government’s great importance to lighting energy conservation.
It is expected that the LED lighting subsidy policy will be launched later. The recent outstanding performance of LED-related stocks has demonstrated the stimulation of the above policies. The market has also circulated that the subsidy policy on LED general lighting may be about to be introduced soon. After the policy of eliminating incandescent lamps is expected to be clear, the government will propose countermeasures for alternative light sources. As one of the key development directions of China's seven strategic emerging industries, the LED industry should receive the financial support from the government in the future. It is expected that the introduction of the subsidy policy for LED general lighting is approaching.
The official has approved the technical and economic feasibility of LED general lighting. The “roadmapâ€, in particular the LED lighting subsidy policy to be launched later, shows that the government has recognized that the domestic LED industry has the technical and economic conditions and basis for large-scale promotion in the general lighting field. The application of LEDs in the field of general lighting is about to accelerate.
For the development of the LED industry, Fortune Securities believes that: (1) From the current policy trends, monetary policy has begun to loosen, and the elimination of the publication of the incandescent light roadmap and the expected increase in LED lighting subsidies will accelerate the expansion of the LED market. The grassroots survey of some downstream companies also shows that LED lighting demand and display demand have been stabilizing and picking up since October, and only the backlight demand is still not ideal. Comprehensive analysis, the third quarter of this year should be the LED industry's performance lows. (2) Experience from the overheated investment promoted by various local governments in 2010 to the brutal reshuffling of the industry in 2-3 quarters of 2011. The understanding of the LED industry in all sectors should be more rational, and the overall development environment of the industry is constantly being optimized. Moreover, technological advances and fierce competition in 2011 have led to a significant decline in the prices of LED terminal products. Since 2012, the general lighting market will open at an accelerated pace, and the spring of the industry is approaching.
Ping An Securities: Eliminating incandescent lamps favors the LED industry
The sluggish LED industry ushered in the dawn. Due to the low penetration of the lighting market and the sluggishness of the display and backlight markets, LED demand is weak. Affected by the pressure of release of production capacity and the continued decline in the prices of LED products, profitability weakened in January-September 2011 despite an increase in revenue year-on-year. With the elimination of incandescent lamps and subsidies for energy-efficient lighting products, the LED lighting market is expected to start faster.
Long-term optimistic about the LED industry, 2012 is a key node. The LED has high luminous efficiency and consumes less power under the same illumination. With white LED lighting, it can save more than 50% energy compared with fluorescent lamps and more than 80% energy than incandescent lamps. And it has a long life, does not contain mercury, no pollution, good security advantages, is recognized as the third generation of electric light source. In 2012, major countries in the United States, Europe, and Japan will gradually or completely eliminate incandescent lamps, which lays the foundation for the popularity of LEDs. At the same time, from the perspective of the downward trend in prices, the cost-effectiveness of white LEDs will show their advantages in the field of commercial lighting. In 2012, it is expected to become the first year of popularity of LED lighting.
UBS Securities: Terminal Subsidy Now
Energy-saving lamps replace incandescent lamps at the low end, and LEDs replace medium-high-end energy-saving lamps. In accordance with the Development and Reform Commission's "Canceling Incandescent Lamps Roadmap" (draft for comment), in 2012, incandescent lamps of more than 100W were banned, and incandescent lamps for general lighting were banned in 2016. UBS Securities believes that energy-saving lamps will begin to substitute at the low end; if the terminal price is reduced by 40-50%, the demand for LED general lighting will increase by 3-5 times. In the mid-to-high end, LED lighting penetration is expected to be less than 3 at present. The rapid growth of more than 10%.
Subsidies are crucial to changing industry expectations and the impact is multi-level. It is estimated that the energy subsidies for lighting will reach 8-100 billion yuan in the next 5 years. UBS Securities believes that: Price reduction stimulates demand; subsidized procurement bidding is expected to drive down market prices and stimulate greater demand.
It is expected to benefit from the high-power LED industry chain. UBS Securities believes that subsidies are expected to drive shipments of lighting terminal products. Downlights, spotlights, street lamps and other high-end LED products are expected to be subsidized; however, the impact of subsidies on packaging and chip manufacturers will be different: The power (single power >0.5W) industrial chain is expected to achieve a higher volume of shipments, but the low-power (<0.5W, display) industrial chain may not benefit significantly.
Industrial Securities: Fundamental outlook is still sluggish, and policies appear positive
Near the end of the year, the policy has entered an intensive period, and the market is expected to increase the country’s support policies for the LED industry. The National Development and Reform Commission is scheduled to hold a press conference on the elimination of incandescent light roadmaps on the morning of November 4 (Friday), 2011 to introduce relevant contents of the "Notice on the gradual ban on the import and sale of incandescent lamps for general lighting". The green lighting industry policy is ushering in Good.
In addition, “The 12th Five-Year Plan for Energy-saving and Environmental Protection Industry Development†may be promulgated at the Seventh National Environmental Protection Conference. It is rumored that LED lighting is expected to formally be included in the subsidy range. Before the end of the year, the first round of LED lighting product subsidies will be issued. 8 billion yuan, first for product subsidies for indoor lighting and commercial lighting, such as downlights, spotlights, and then gradually expand the intensity and scope of subsidies.
Industrial Securities believes that the policy side, if the country in the LED industry is relatively low period, the introduction of related support policies, especially for LED lighting subsidies policy, will help boost confidence in the industry, encourage the orderly development of the industry, China's official replacement of incandescent lamps The road map, together with countries such as Europe, USA, Japan and other countries, entered the substantive phase of the elimination of incandescent lamps, which is beneficial to the long-term development of the incandescent lamp alternative energy-saving lamps and LED lamps-related industries. Fundamentally, the LED industry is still facing the common problems of over-investment, imbalance of supply and demand structure, rapid decline in product prices, decline in gross profit margin, and slowdown in the overall growth of the industry. In the fourth quarter, the order situation has not seen any significant improvement, and the industry is still bleak. LED lighting is still the structural highlight of the industry. Consistent with our judgment in the in-depth report, LED lighting clearly shows signs of start-up. LED lighting penetration is rapidly increasing with decreasing lighting costs, but LED lighting still accounts for a relatively low proportion of the industry. , It has limited effect on the industry.
Industrial Securities believes that it is currently possible to focus on companies with scale advantages, technological advantages, and early involvement in LED lighting applications. We have long been optimistic about the development prospects of China's LED industry and maintain its “recommended†investment rating for LED sub-sectors.
Hongyuan Securities: Concerned about the introduction of the LED industry support policy
From the perspective of market performance, the current LED sector stocks exhibited a clear oversold rebound feature. The LED industry involves upstream substrate epitaxy and chip, midstream packaging and downstream applications. The A-share LED sector is involved in the shares of 26 listed companies. Since the beginning of this year, most stock prices have been reduced by more than 30%. Today's daily limit of nine, the increase of more than 8% of the 11 to form a wave of more obvious oversold rebound market.
From the fundamental analysis, LED replacement is the trend of the times. All along, incandescent lamps have been eliminated and LED lighting subsidy policies are expected and not far away. The only uncertainty is the specific time. This process will be accompanied by the introduction of the national support policy, the increase in the production capacity of LED lighting products and the continued decline in prices.
From the policy retrospective, the State Council issued the "12th Five-Year Plan for Comprehensive Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction" in the early stage. Green energy-saving retrofits, demonstration projects for the industrialization of energy-saving technologies, and projects for energy-saving products that benefit people are listed as key energy-saving projects. Explicitly pointed out that it is necessary to accelerate energy-saving renovation of facilities, strictly manage energy use, and guide consumer behavior, and promote the use of high-efficiency energy-saving appliances and lighting products among residents. And the "semiconductor lighting" included in the "intensify energy-saving emission reduction technology industrialization demonstration" project. As we clearly pointed out in the fourth quarter strategy report on September 30, a number of guiding policies on semiconductor lighting are expected to be introduced in the fourth quarter, and the Ministry of Finance is planning to subsidize semiconductor lighting products with the NDRC and other competent authorities. Therefore, this incident is in line with expectations.
Hongyuan Securities believes that the LED industry is still in a period of rapid development, and the overall income scale of the industry is continuously growing. The reduction of product prices is one of the preconditions for universal application. In addition, the current LED industry in China still has a structural oversupply factor. The overall decline in short-term profitability is inevitable. The previous stock price adjustment has basically reflected this fact. At present, the overall valuation of the industry is at a low level, and the overall dynamic PE in 2011/2012 is 28.8x/20.8x respectively. The fulfillment of policy-friendly information is expected to bring about short-term trading opportunities. Later-stage support policies will help increase the overall demand of the industry, and will have long-term benefits for the growth of industry performance. Temporarily gave a rating on the sector holdings, and suggested actively concerned about the introduction of follow-up policy details.
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