The voice of electricity shortage began again. The peak of electricity consumption in summer has passed, but at the end of August, China Southern Power Grid reported that the entire network power gap reached 15%, while the electricity gaps in Guangxi and Guizhou provinces were even close to 40% and 35%, respectively, entering the state of red alert for Power Supply. Shanxi, a large coal province in northern China, also reported that the power plants had insufficient coal stocks, unplanned shutdowns in large areas, and 13 power plants were lettered, reflecting operational difficulties. The situation of coal-fired bulls was once again staged. The power company claims that it must levy a windfall tax on coal companies; coal companies are fighting back: “Even if the coal price does not rise, the power companies will lose money due to financial problems.â€
He Zhicheng: The relationship between China and Europe has a shortage of electricity. There are usually shortages of electricity during summer peaks. But this year's power shortage is the worst since 2004, and it's lingering, but why?
Ask the five major power generation groups: Do thermal power losses?
With respect to electricity shortages, the most common argument is that the rise in coal prices has caused thermal power companies to lose money and they have been unable to generate electricity or reduce electricity generation. According to the industry survey of CEC, from January to July, Huaneng, Datang, Huadian, Guodian, and China Power Investment Corp.’s five major power generation group companies had a total loss of 7.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.27 billion yuan. The thermal power business suffered a loss of 18.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3 billion yuan. From April to July, the thermal power business suffered a loss of 1.71 billion yuan, 1.69 billion yuan, 2.9 billion yuan, and 2.85 billion yuan respectively, and the monthly loss amount expanded. It can be seen that from January to June, the five major power generation groups had a loss of 15.24 billion yuan in thermal power; however, in the first six months, thermal power production enterprises realized a total profit of 8.7 billion yuan. That is, in addition to the thermal power of the five major power generation groups, the profits of thermal power companies are 23.94 billion yuan. It can be seen that the loss of thermal power in the five major power generation groups is a loss in the power business, but the overall thermal power industry and the power industry are not at a loss, and they are all profitable.
According to CEC’s “Report†statistical analysis, since 2003, China’s coal prices have continued to rise. The representative Qinhuangdao Shanxi high-grade 5,500 kcal coal price has risen sharply from 275 yuan/ton at the end of 2003 to the end of June 2011. At around 840 yuan/ton, the cumulative increase was more than 200%, while the sales price rose by less than 40%. The continuous rise in raw coal prices for thermal power generation and relatively slow rise in electricity prices are indeed facts. However, under the premise of overall profitability of the thermal power industry, it can be assumed that when the coal price is not so high, the profit level of thermal power is not too high. Alright?
There is a very interesting phenomenon. The five major power generation central enterprises have suffered continuous losses in thermal power (even the power generation business) in recent years, but their installed capacity has been increasing rapidly. For example, Datang Group's installed capacity in 2009 exceeded the 100 million kilowatt mark and became the world's largest megawatt-class power generation company. In the past seven years, a total of 70.863 million kilowatts of new generating units have been put into operation, creating the industry-recognized “Datang Speedâ€. As of the end of 2010, the installed capacity of Datang Corporation reached 105.895 million kilowatts, which was an increase of 3.44 times compared with the 23.483 million kilowatts it was set up. According to the report of the China Electricity Regulatory Commission, in 2010, the installed capacity of the thermal power industry increased by 8.53%, which is comparable to the increase in installed hydropower installed capacity (8.72%). The financial pressure and risks brought about by the frenzied investment construction are obvious. From January to June, the interest expenditure of the power industry reached 76.6 billion yuan, which exceeded the total profit realized by the power industry in the same period. The financial burden of the company continued to increase, and the debt ratio was increased. Stay high.
The installed capacity of thermal power of the five largest power generation groups accounted for more than 80%. Why are the thermal power losses, but they are still building thermal power? Why are Other power generation companies profitable, and the five major power generation groups have lost thermal power and the overall power generation business also suffers losses? When the investment diversification, Can we guarantee the generation of electricity? Due to space limitations, we do not discuss, but these are questions that need to be asked.
Ask the truth about the power shortage: Is it "planned electricity, market coal"?
"Market coal, planning electricity" argument, although there is a certain degree of rationality, but the current status of China's coal industry is not accurate. This statement, too rough, neglected the deep understanding of the coal-fired power industry, and it also covered or misunderstood the truth behind the power shortage.
Look at the problem of "planning electricity" first. Before revocation of the establishment of the National Power Company by the Ministry of Electric Power, it should be said that the electricity industry in China is engaged in a planned economy. Afterwards, especially after the power reforms in the year 2002 and the separation of factory sites and networks, it could not be called "planned electricity," because the government did not impose a rigid demand on the amount of electricity generated by each power generation company. If it is really "planned electricity," that is, how much electricity the government requires each power company to generate, perhaps the current power shortage may not be staged. However, it is not planned whether or not that is the market. Since the power reform, almost all of the power plants have been occupied by state-owned enterprises, and non-state-owned enterprises account for less than 5%, and the installed capacity of the five major central enterprises has almost occupied half of the country. Even if we do not say that the problem of the absence of state-owned enterprises, at least we can say that China's power generation market is not a normal market.
There is also a problem with the expression of "market coal". First, the coal market is not a normal market for full competition. At present, the coal market is basically controlled by central or local state-owned large-scale coal enterprises, especially after the so-called "national advancement and retreat" coal reform in recent years. For example, the five largest coal enterprises in Shanxi account for more than half of Shanxi coal production. In coal reform, it is clear that the government's only visible big hand is how to manipulate the coal industry. In addition to directly interfering in the coal industry organization, the government is also concerned about the price of coal. In April this year, the Development and Reform Commission interviewed major coal companies and demanded that prices remain stable. The coal market is far from the “marketâ€. On June 19, 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission conducted a direct price intervention on the coal market and set a maximum limit price. Several times coal orders are all under the NDRC's price-limit policy. The combination of coal companies and power companies is strong, and this has laid a stance for the low rate of fulfillment of coal contracts and shortage of electric coal. Not only that, coal's market supply is not entirely price-oriented, such as the province's trade in coal, local governments have a strong dominance, artificially segment the market, limiting the province to ensure local interests.
There is no plan for "planning electricity" and "market coal" is not enough for the market. The actual situation behind it is the same. That is, the pattern formed by the reform is the oligopoly of state-owned enterprises and the government's control. Among these, there are many contradictions between coal companies and power companies, between thermal power companies and transportation, between power generation companies and power grid companies, between businesses and governments, and between local governments and the central government. The electricity shortage is a manifestation of these intricate and intricate contradictions and irrationalities.
The price rise is difficult to solve The marketization of electricity shortage is the only way out China's on-grid electricity prices and sales prices are set directly by the government. The phrase “pricing electricity†or “controlling electricity†can more effectively reflect the power industry reform that formed the main feature of electricity price control in 2002. The regulation of electricity prices artificially distorts the allocation of resources and is the direct cause of the phenomenon of electricity shortage. For example, most coal-fired power plants in Shanxi are unable to afford or buy coal from the province, and they are even less willing to purchase coal that is inferior to Inner Mongolia. Because, the on-grid electricity price of Shanxi thermal power has long been almost the lowest. For example, Guizhou has richer coal resources in the south, but the on-grid electricity price is relatively low. Therefore, a large amount of coal is sold to neighboring provinces. The province's power plants can produce electricity without coal.
The power reform has formed power companies (including power generation companies and power grid companies) whose interests are of interest to the power industry, but they have no pricing power. The power reform has basically not formed a market in which both the supply and demand sides of the power market are engaged. The power users are only passive recipients of electric power products, and generally have the freedom and possibility to select sellers and subscribe for electricity. The enterprise has no pricing power and the price of electricity is set by the government. Then the price of electricity is not a real price, but is a demarcation point of interest division. Know that there is no market, there is no price. The so-called price mechanism is to adjust supply and demand through prices and achieve market equilibrium. This is one of the most basic principles of the market economy.
Therefore, the most fundamental reason for the power shortage is that there is no market and no price mechanism to adjust the relationship between supply and demand. Raising the price of electricity can only ease the financial pressure of the power companies in a short period of time, and can provide more power at most, but this increase in supply is still irrelevant. This year's electricity shortage, there is an analysis that the speed of economic development exceeds the speed of growth in electricity supply. This does not explain the disconnection between electricity supply and demand, and the lack of electricity market. Under the premise that there is no electricity market, any adjustment of electricity prices, including the coal price linkage, is futile and even counterproductive to solving the electricity shortage. .
Solve the problem of electricity shortage, in addition to electricity market reform, what is the way out?
He Zhicheng: The relationship between China and Europe has a shortage of electricity. There are usually shortages of electricity during summer peaks. But this year's power shortage is the worst since 2004, and it's lingering, but why?
Ask the five major power generation groups: Do thermal power losses?
With respect to electricity shortages, the most common argument is that the rise in coal prices has caused thermal power companies to lose money and they have been unable to generate electricity or reduce electricity generation. According to the industry survey of CEC, from January to July, Huaneng, Datang, Huadian, Guodian, and China Power Investment Corp.’s five major power generation group companies had a total loss of 7.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.27 billion yuan. The thermal power business suffered a loss of 18.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.3 billion yuan. From April to July, the thermal power business suffered a loss of 1.71 billion yuan, 1.69 billion yuan, 2.9 billion yuan, and 2.85 billion yuan respectively, and the monthly loss amount expanded. It can be seen that from January to June, the five major power generation groups had a loss of 15.24 billion yuan in thermal power; however, in the first six months, thermal power production enterprises realized a total profit of 8.7 billion yuan. That is, in addition to the thermal power of the five major power generation groups, the profits of thermal power companies are 23.94 billion yuan. It can be seen that the loss of thermal power in the five major power generation groups is a loss in the power business, but the overall thermal power industry and the power industry are not at a loss, and they are all profitable.
According to CEC’s “Report†statistical analysis, since 2003, China’s coal prices have continued to rise. The representative Qinhuangdao Shanxi high-grade 5,500 kcal coal price has risen sharply from 275 yuan/ton at the end of 2003 to the end of June 2011. At around 840 yuan/ton, the cumulative increase was more than 200%, while the sales price rose by less than 40%. The continuous rise in raw coal prices for thermal power generation and relatively slow rise in electricity prices are indeed facts. However, under the premise of overall profitability of the thermal power industry, it can be assumed that when the coal price is not so high, the profit level of thermal power is not too high. Alright?
There is a very interesting phenomenon. The five major power generation central enterprises have suffered continuous losses in thermal power (even the power generation business) in recent years, but their installed capacity has been increasing rapidly. For example, Datang Group's installed capacity in 2009 exceeded the 100 million kilowatt mark and became the world's largest megawatt-class power generation company. In the past seven years, a total of 70.863 million kilowatts of new generating units have been put into operation, creating the industry-recognized “Datang Speedâ€. As of the end of 2010, the installed capacity of Datang Corporation reached 105.895 million kilowatts, which was an increase of 3.44 times compared with the 23.483 million kilowatts it was set up. According to the report of the China Electricity Regulatory Commission, in 2010, the installed capacity of the thermal power industry increased by 8.53%, which is comparable to the increase in installed hydropower installed capacity (8.72%). The financial pressure and risks brought about by the frenzied investment construction are obvious. From January to June, the interest expenditure of the power industry reached 76.6 billion yuan, which exceeded the total profit realized by the power industry in the same period. The financial burden of the company continued to increase, and the debt ratio was increased. Stay high.
The installed capacity of thermal power of the five largest power generation groups accounted for more than 80%. Why are the thermal power losses, but they are still building thermal power? Why are Other power generation companies profitable, and the five major power generation groups have lost thermal power and the overall power generation business also suffers losses? When the investment diversification, Can we guarantee the generation of electricity? Due to space limitations, we do not discuss, but these are questions that need to be asked.
Ask the truth about the power shortage: Is it "planned electricity, market coal"?
"Market coal, planning electricity" argument, although there is a certain degree of rationality, but the current status of China's coal industry is not accurate. This statement, too rough, neglected the deep understanding of the coal-fired power industry, and it also covered or misunderstood the truth behind the power shortage.
Look at the problem of "planning electricity" first. Before revocation of the establishment of the National Power Company by the Ministry of Electric Power, it should be said that the electricity industry in China is engaged in a planned economy. Afterwards, especially after the power reforms in the year 2002 and the separation of factory sites and networks, it could not be called "planned electricity," because the government did not impose a rigid demand on the amount of electricity generated by each power generation company. If it is really "planned electricity," that is, how much electricity the government requires each power company to generate, perhaps the current power shortage may not be staged. However, it is not planned whether or not that is the market. Since the power reform, almost all of the power plants have been occupied by state-owned enterprises, and non-state-owned enterprises account for less than 5%, and the installed capacity of the five major central enterprises has almost occupied half of the country. Even if we do not say that the problem of the absence of state-owned enterprises, at least we can say that China's power generation market is not a normal market.
There is also a problem with the expression of "market coal". First, the coal market is not a normal market for full competition. At present, the coal market is basically controlled by central or local state-owned large-scale coal enterprises, especially after the so-called "national advancement and retreat" coal reform in recent years. For example, the five largest coal enterprises in Shanxi account for more than half of Shanxi coal production. In coal reform, it is clear that the government's only visible big hand is how to manipulate the coal industry. In addition to directly interfering in the coal industry organization, the government is also concerned about the price of coal. In April this year, the Development and Reform Commission interviewed major coal companies and demanded that prices remain stable. The coal market is far from the “marketâ€. On June 19, 2008, the National Development and Reform Commission conducted a direct price intervention on the coal market and set a maximum limit price. Several times coal orders are all under the NDRC's price-limit policy. The combination of coal companies and power companies is strong, and this has laid a stance for the low rate of fulfillment of coal contracts and shortage of electric coal. Not only that, coal's market supply is not entirely price-oriented, such as the province's trade in coal, local governments have a strong dominance, artificially segment the market, limiting the province to ensure local interests.
There is no plan for "planning electricity" and "market coal" is not enough for the market. The actual situation behind it is the same. That is, the pattern formed by the reform is the oligopoly of state-owned enterprises and the government's control. Among these, there are many contradictions between coal companies and power companies, between thermal power companies and transportation, between power generation companies and power grid companies, between businesses and governments, and between local governments and the central government. The electricity shortage is a manifestation of these intricate and intricate contradictions and irrationalities.
The price rise is difficult to solve The marketization of electricity shortage is the only way out China's on-grid electricity prices and sales prices are set directly by the government. The phrase “pricing electricity†or “controlling electricity†can more effectively reflect the power industry reform that formed the main feature of electricity price control in 2002. The regulation of electricity prices artificially distorts the allocation of resources and is the direct cause of the phenomenon of electricity shortage. For example, most coal-fired power plants in Shanxi are unable to afford or buy coal from the province, and they are even less willing to purchase coal that is inferior to Inner Mongolia. Because, the on-grid electricity price of Shanxi thermal power has long been almost the lowest. For example, Guizhou has richer coal resources in the south, but the on-grid electricity price is relatively low. Therefore, a large amount of coal is sold to neighboring provinces. The province's power plants can produce electricity without coal.
The power reform has formed power companies (including power generation companies and power grid companies) whose interests are of interest to the power industry, but they have no pricing power. The power reform has basically not formed a market in which both the supply and demand sides of the power market are engaged. The power users are only passive recipients of electric power products, and generally have the freedom and possibility to select sellers and subscribe for electricity. The enterprise has no pricing power and the price of electricity is set by the government. Then the price of electricity is not a real price, but is a demarcation point of interest division. Know that there is no market, there is no price. The so-called price mechanism is to adjust supply and demand through prices and achieve market equilibrium. This is one of the most basic principles of the market economy.
Therefore, the most fundamental reason for the power shortage is that there is no market and no price mechanism to adjust the relationship between supply and demand. Raising the price of electricity can only ease the financial pressure of the power companies in a short period of time, and can provide more power at most, but this increase in supply is still irrelevant. This year's electricity shortage, there is an analysis that the speed of economic development exceeds the speed of growth in electricity supply. This does not explain the disconnection between electricity supply and demand, and the lack of electricity market. Under the premise that there is no electricity market, any adjustment of electricity prices, including the coal price linkage, is futile and even counterproductive to solving the electricity shortage. .
Solve the problem of electricity shortage, in addition to electricity market reform, what is the way out?
Jingkesai Electric Co., Ltd. , http://www.hobaoelec.com