Philips, the global lighting giant, is more optimistic that the proportion of LED lighting in the global general lighting market will rise to 50% in 2015 and 80% in 2020. According to statistics from LEDinside, in 2009, the global LED lighting output value was about 2.4 billion US dollars, and the penetration rate was only 3.3%.
“In 2009, the penetration rate of LED lighting in China was less than 1%, but I estimate that there will be a big outbreak next year, and the optimistic estimate is between 5% and 10%.†December 14, 2010 in Guangzhou At the Asian Energy Forum, Wang Dianxi, president of Shenzhen LED ("Light Emitting Diode" Energy Saving Lamps) Industry Association, predicted that by 2015, the penetration rate of LED lighting will exceed 30%.
Wang Dianxi revealed that according to his investigation, the number of epitaxial furnaces (MOCVD, or LED chip production equipment) that domestic manufacturers plan to import is 1,466. "What is the concept of this number? This means that this is the sum of the world's MOCVD in 2006." As of the end of 2009, there were only 1,200 MOCVD equipment in production worldwide. According to the forecast of the National LED Industry Committee for the development of high-tech enterprises, the investment amount of the domestic LED industry reached 60 billion yuan in 2010, an increase of 500% compared with last year's more than 10 billion yuan.
However, this has also raised concerns about over-investment in the LED industry. More than 3,000 LED companies in China have no market share of more than 2%, and only 140 of them have an annual output value of over 100 million. Among them, none of them has annual sales of more than 1 billion yuan.
An industry insider expressed concern that the current domestic LED street lamp products have technical instability problems in terms of light efficiency, illumination uniformity, color rendering, and service life, especially in the case of light decay. The test results are very unsatisfactory.
A huge hidden danger is that Chinese companies currently do not master the core technologies of LED. For example, LED chip technology is mainly in the hands of a few foreign-funded enterprises such as Cree, Philips, Osram and Nichia.
In Wang Dianzhen's view, domestic enterprises must take the LED road of lean manufacturing, "still pay attention to quality and brand."
"More serious is the talent problem." Wang Dianzhen said that with 1,466 MOCVD calculations currently ordered in China, more than 1,400 engineers and more than 100 leading figures are needed, but the current talent echelon construction is far behind.
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