Top Ten Predictions for Mobile Market in 2014

December 24, according to foreign media reports, the technology news site CNET published a review article signed by Marguerite Reardon, which put forward 10 major predictions for the 2014 mobile market. The article is summarized as follows:

1, cheap wireless users are ecstatic that operators finally obey the market

If you are in a market that seeks better value for your wireless service plan, 2014 should be a good year. AT&T recently announced a new mobile sharing program that will provide incentives for users who use older phones or bring their unlocked devices to the AT&T network. This plan is similar to the plan that T-Mobile began implementing in March this year.

According to AT&T’s plan, if the user does not receive equipment subsidies or sign a two-year service plan, each of the user’s smartphones associated with the plan can save $15 per month. T-Mobile’s plan is for users who already own a mobile phone to provide monthly service fee discounts. AT&T's plan and T-Mobile's plan are a positive step for consumers, indicating that some large operators will actively compete for consumers who seek better value for their wireless service plans.

2. Wireless operators will try to lobby the U.S. government

The new US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) chairman Tom Wheeler has taken over and issued the first commercial order to postpone the upcoming stimulating spectrum auction.

This auction will allow TV broadcasters to abandon the spectrum in order to obtain auction revenue. This is one of the most complicated auctions FCC has designed so far. Wheeler said that the correct implementation of this matter is very important for the U.S. government. Therefore, he will postpone the auction for one year and give the organization more time to prepare. However, although this ranking still has a year's time, wireless operators are already preparing to increase their lobbying efforts.

3, operator integration will continue

In the past two years, there have been many mergers and acquisitions between wireless operators. This trend will continue in 2014.

In 2013, AT&T acquired Leap Wireless, a prepaid wireless service provider. T-Mobile acquired MetroPCS. Japan’s Softbank acquired Sprint. Sprint acquired its remaining shares in Clearwire. Considering that there were so many mergers and acquisitions activities in 2013, it seems that in 2014 there were no more acquisition deals to be done.

However, think again, there have been many rumors that Sprint is preparing to acquire T-Mobile. Considering that T-Mobile's parent company, Deutsche Telekom, wants to withdraw from the US market, this news is not surprising. However, it is unclear whether the U.S. federal regulatory authority will approve this transaction.

4. T-Mobile's "Uncarrier" strategy will once again restructure the wireless industry

T-Mobile is preparing to implement the next phase of the "Uncarrier" strategy. T-Mobile has cancelled the contract, cancelled equipment subsidies, introduced an early upgrade plan, provided 200MB of tablet data for free, and canceled roaming charges for international travelers in more than 100 countries.

John Legere, chief executive of T-Mobile, recently stated in a blog that an important event that the company will announce in early 2014 will eliminate another pain point for users. This may be to improve the coverage of 3G and 4G, bundle fees and taxes into the price, no longer provide unlocked mobile phones or limit the number of lines in the family service plan.

5. Sprint will become more powerful in the "year of reconstruction"

Just as a sports team restructures its team with younger and more agile players after a failed season due to injury and retirement, Sprint is rebuilding its business. Dan Hesse, Sprint's chief executive, believes that 2013 is a bad year for the company, but 2014 will be a better year because Sprint has returned to normal.

By mid-2014, Sprint's 4G LTE service will be provided to 250 million U.S. customers. By the end of 2014, 100 million U.S. customers will use the 2.5GHz wireless spectrum that they acquired from Clearwire.

6. Blackberry: Even worse before it gets better

Blackberry spent a difficult year. BlackBerry urgently needs to change, has replaced its old management and has appointed an alternate CEO, John Chen, to replace the original CEO for the interim CEO. Cheng Shouzong acknowledged that the situation of BlackBerry is severe, especially in terms of equipment. However, he said, BlackBerry will eventually fight back.

The big shift for BlackBerry is to get rid of the consumer mobile phone business in North America and focus on business and enterprise messaging software business methods. BlackBerry will also focus its mobile phone business on the developing market. BlackBerry has partnered with equipment maker Foxconn to reduce equipment production costs and minimize the risk of product backlogs.

The BlackBerry will launch its first product in cooperation with Foxconn in March or April next year. This product will be sold in Indonesia.

BlackBerry may also announce plans to introduce security and office enterprise applications to Google Android and Apple iOS devices.

Of course, the biggest question for BlackBerry in 2014 is whether it will survive until 2015. Considering the cash that Blackberry currently owns and the ways in which it cuts costs and manages business, the BlackBerry may survive for some time. However, 2014 will be the year in which the decision of Cheng Shouzong’s new strategy can save the company.

7, Microsoft will cancel the Lumia brand

One of the biggest moves in the wireless device market in 2013 was Microsoft’s acquisition of Nokia’s equipment and services business unit for US$7.2 billion. However, it is unclear what will happen to the Lumia brand as Nokia sells the deal to Microsoft in early 2014 and Microsoft begins to integrate Nokia products into its own products.

From the consumer's point of view, retaining the two brands, Windows and Lumia, will cause confusion. Therefore, Microsoft may be forced to make a choice. There are rumors that Nokia's 8-inch tablet Lumia 2020 has been shelved because Microsoft plans to release a similar 8-inch Surface tablet in early 2014. If these rumors are true, this means that the Lumia brand will be withdrawn.

8. Patent disputes between Apple and Samsung will continue

Apple and Samsung’s lawsuit against each other for infringing patents will continue in 2014 and beyond. The fierce legal battle between the two companies began in April 2011. At the time, Apple filed a lawsuit accusing Samsung of copying the look and feel of its products. Samsung filed a counterclaim two months later and accused Apple of infringing its patents.

In the first trial phase that ended in August 2012, a jury of 9 people supported Apple and ruled that Samsung infringed Apple’s patents and asked Samsung to compensate Apple for a loss of US$1.05 billion. In March this year, the judge ordered the case to be reviewed and the loss was recalculated, and a large part of the amount of compensation in the original judgment was cancelled. In another trial held in November this year, the second jury asked Samsung to compensate Apple for the loss of 290 million U.S. dollars, causing Samsung to compensate Apple with a total amount of 930 million U.S. dollars.

However, the review of this case does not mean the end of the legal battle between Apple and Samsung. Both parties will make more appeals. The patent dispute on the latest equipment will be heard in March next year. Devices involved in the new case include Samsung’s Galaxy Nexus, Galaxy S3 and Note 2, and Apple’s iPhone 5.

9, unlock the phone will become the mainstream

2014 will be the year that US consumers use various unlocked mobile phones. For many years, wireless operators have been forcing mobile phone manufacturers to use software to lock their mobile phones, thereby controlling which devices can use their networks. However, due to the development of two major events in 2013, there will be a large number of unlocked mobile phones with different prices entering the US market in 2014.

The first important thing is that wireless operators such as AT&T and T-Mobile now offer rewards to consumers who use unlocked devices to access their networks, creating a real market for unlocking mobile phones.

The second important thing is that the new service plan encourages consumers to bring their own mobile phones when switching carriers because the major U.S. mobile operators have signed agreements with the U.S. Federal Communications Commission to make it easier for consumers to pay Unlock your phone.

10, LG will become a hot Android device manufacturer and HTC's star will disappear

LG’s share of the US smartphone market has fallen in recent years. However, LG seems to have begun to recover its luck in 2013, launching some new high-end mobile phones. LG launched two popular Nexus phones for Google. There are rumors that LG is developing the next generation of Google Nexus phones. Although LG’s flagship G2 Android smart phone sales are not particularly good, this phone is well received by device appraisers. In 2014, LG handsets will become trusted alternatives for Apple and Samsung handsets, especially in the US market.

While LG's star rises, HTC's starlight seems to disappear. 2014 will be a difficult year for Taiwanese handset maker HTC. Although HTC released an important smartphone, HTC One, in 2013, HTC also reported its first financial loss. And the financial status of HTC will not recover in the short term. 2014 will be a success or failure for HTC.