Three sets of scripts that the semiconductor industry may debut

Ian Steff, the deputy assistant director of the U.S. Department of Commerce responsible for manufacturing, recently visited the TSMC headquarters to meet with Chairman Zhang Zhongmou. The meeting has sparked significant interest and speculation among industry observers. The semiconductor sector is closely watching the potential outcomes of these discussions, with three main scenarios being considered: TSMC potentially establishing a factory in the U.S., increasing support for U.S. IC design companies, and how TSMC plans to navigate the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions. Recent developments in the U.S.-China trade war have seen some delays, and reports suggest that mainland China might be reducing its procurement of semiconductors from Taiwan and South Korea, shifting more demand toward American suppliers. This shift has raised concerns about whether Taiwan could be sidelined in the global semiconductor supply chain, which is crucial to its economy and national GDP. Given this context, Ian Steff’s visit to TSMC at this time has led to increased market speculation about the implications for the industry. Sun Youwen, a senior director at TSMC's Corporate Information Office, confirmed that Zhang Zhongmou met with Ian Steff on the morning of the 26th to exchange views. While details of their conversation remain undisclosed, it is widely believed that the discussion centered around the relationship between the U.S. and Taiwan's semiconductor industries, as well as strategies to address the challenges posed by the U.S.-China trade conflict. Industry insiders note that since President Trump took office, the U.S. has prioritized policies aimed at boosting domestic manufacturing and addressing trade imbalances. With companies like Foxconn already investing heavily in the U.S., there are growing expectations that TSMC might follow a similar path. This raises the possibility that TSMC could become the second "Made in America" semiconductor factory, following Foxconn’s example. Additionally, many of TSMC’s key clients, such as Apple and Qualcomm, are based in the U.S. These companies are reportedly hoping that TSMC will expand its production capabilities within the U.S. to meet growing demand. Another potential scenario involves TSMC providing more capacity to U.S. IC design firms. As semiconductor technology advances to 7nm and beyond, the technical barriers are extremely high. Currently, only a handful of manufacturers—Intel, TSMC, and Samsung—are capable of producing such advanced chips. With emerging fields like AI and automotive electronics expected to grow rapidly, the demand for high-end chips is set to rise. Industry experts believe that TSMC may be encouraged to support U.S. chip designers in the future. The third possible outcome revolves around Zhang Zhongmou's perspective on the U.S.-China trade war and how TSMC intends to protect Taiwan's semiconductor industry from negative impacts. It also includes considerations on maintaining the long-standing friendly relations between U.S. and Taiwanese semiconductor companies amid the geopolitical tensions.

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