According to reports, the 2016 new energy vehicle subsidy policy is expected to be released in early December, and the new national subsidy policy will be more changed than the previous version. Some insiders said that in this adjustment, electric logistics vehicles and ternary batteries are expected to become the two major benefits in the later market.
Affected by this news, the concept of new energy that has been quiet for a long time has changed. On December 6th, Tianci materials rose 5.82%, CITIC Guoan rose 4.67%, and Jifeng lithium industry rose 4.48%.
The industry believes that the new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be adjusted in many aspects. Based on the original 2016-2020 subsidy program, the barriers to entry (including vehicle energy consumption, driving range, power battery safety, and corporate integrity) have been improved. While raising the threshold, the subsidies for new energy vehicles have declined, and new energy buses are likely to be cut by subsidies. Among them, the new energy buses of 6 meters to 8 meters in size, each subsidy amount reduced from 0.5 times of the previous standard car (10m to 12m passenger car to standard car) to 0.3 times; 8m to 10m new energy bus The amount of bicycle subsidies has dropped from 0.8 times of the previous standard cars to 0.6 times. That is, the bicycle subsidy for the 6-meter to 8-meter model is reduced from 120,000 yuan to 250,000 yuan to 72,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan; the bicycle subsidy for the 8-meter to 10-meter model is 200,000 yuan to 40 yuan. Ten thousand yuan, down to 150,000 yuan to 300,000 yuan. In addition, subsidies for new energy passenger cars and fuel cell vehicles are relatively stable; the subsidy ceiling for new energy special vehicles and new energy trucks will be higher than previously reported.
Changes in policy will also bring about changes in the market. From the current version, the electric logistics vehicle and the ternary battery are all aspects of the market's later optimism. Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the fourth batch of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. This is the case after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology investigated and dealt with the new energy vehicles in April, and released them after 9 months. Among them, pure electric logistics vehicles entered the promotion catalog for the first time, and the number of finalists reached 178. Some insiders believe that the pure electric logistics vehicle market is expected to take this opportunity to usher in an outbreak. In addition, recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a publicity conference on further improving the safety supervision and application of new energy vehicles. The meeting pointed out that starting from January 1, 2017, the new application of "new energy vehicles will be promoted and applied. The recommended vehicle catalogue for passenger cars using ternary batteries should be accompanied by a third-party inspection report. Insiders pointed out that the clause may indicate that the ternary lithium battery bus can apply for the recommended catalogue under the premise of the thermal runaway test and the thermal runaway extended test test, which may mark the application of the ternary battery on the passenger car since 2017. The ban was lifted on January 1. From all indications, these two aspects will be the most beneficial areas in the adjustment of subsidies for new energy vehicles.
In fact, at the beginning of this month, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Recommended Models for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (the fourth batch), which included a total of 678 models. Among them, 176 pure electric logistics vehicles were included, and the production enterprises include Dongfeng, Beiqi Futian and Chang'an.
The research institute pointed out that this is the first time that an electric logistics vehicle has entered the catalogue. The driving route of the logistics vehicle is relatively fixed. After adopting the new energy power, it is convenient for centralized charging, and the fuel cost can be significantly reduced. With the rapid growth of the express delivery business, electric logistics vehicles are becoming a new point in the automotive industry. The electric logistics trucks will be selected for the promotion catalogue and will be eligible for state subsidies. It is estimated that the market size will reach 260 billion yuan by 2020.
Ternary lithium battery benefitsThe study concluded that the fourth batch of catalogues was based on the shuffling and refactoring of the first three batches of catalogues. The catalogue of the complete vehicle companies and models, and the power batteries that are included in the catalogue are also included in the enterprise catalogue of the catalogue of the standard conditions of the power battery industry. In the future, based on safety and efficiency, OEMs will bind large-scale battery plants to ensure stable battery supply and controllable quality. With the launch of the new energy vehicle promotion catalogue, it is expected that the production and sales of automakers will be sufficient in 2017, and sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase.
The research believes that with the gradual improvement of the technology of the ternary lithium battery, the safety performance can be guaranteed, and there is a greater possibility of re-entering the bus market in the future. The development of the ternary lithium battery industry is highly certain, and the ternary lithium plate is continuously optimistic. Subject. In addition, the motor electronic control of the logistics vehicle industry chain will also benefit from the electrification of logistics vehicles. The new energy sector can focus on two main lines: first, logistics vehicles: Xinhaiyi and Chuangli Group; second, ternary lithium batteries: Aoyang Shunchang, Dangsheng Technology, Jinbei Electric, and Yiwei Lithium.
Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission issued and formulated a series of industrial policies for the new energy vehicle industry chain, mainly starting from the aspects of access conditions, point management, and carbon emissions. From the perspective of the policy itself, supervision has become stricter, but on the other hand, the New Deal is more conducive to the healthy development of the industry. For leading enterprises in the industry, the concentration may be further improved.
In addition, charging facilities are welcoming the intensive period of policy dividends. From the recently held Beijing Smart Energy Group Urban Smart Transportation Symposium, it is understood that the future charging infrastructure will become the focus of industrial policy support, and the degree of policy support and refinement will be significantly improved. It is expected to introduce a unified central financial subsidy mechanism. And other policies such as tax support.
According to estimates, during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the total investment demand for charging facilities in the whole industry is 160 billion to 180 billion yuan. At present, the various parties have different ways of staking. The industry believes that investment opportunities are mainly in the public transportation system. The distribution network construction is combined.
Li Lili, deputy director of the Electric Power Development Planning and Design Institute of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, believes that in the case that most domestic industries have fallen into the "Red Sea" competition, the smart transportation-related industry is a promising "blue ocean" market in the future. In the next step, the support and refinement of the charging infrastructure policy will be significantly improved. The local financial subsidy mechanism will be implemented first in key areas, and the investment subsidy will gradually shift to the electricity subsidy. It is expected to introduce a unified central financial subsidy mechanism and tax support policy. .
In 2017, the new energy auto industry will usher in a new round of positive feedback process after the negative feedback mechanism adjustment. It is expected that the industry will bid farewell to barbaric growth and usher in a more healthy and orderly growth, and there are three major differences:
First, sales have grown rapidly but the structure has diverged. Among the three types of vehicles, passenger cars have the largest market space (15 million) and the lowest penetration rate (2%), which will maintain high-speed growth and become the core position of the market; the passenger car market returns to the essence of commercial vehicles and achieves steady and slow growth; The car market needs to wait for the policy to land, if it is expected to usher in the release of demand. We expect sales of new energy vehicles to be around 650,000 units (including logistics vehicles) in 2017, up 45% year-on-year.
Second, high-end faucets win, and low-end companies are under pressure. Due to the regulation of subsidy catalogues and battery catalogues, the tail enterprises in the industry will be greatly suppressed, and the improvement of battery supply and demand will further increase the market share of leading enterprises. We expect that the power battery industry will have high-end capacity shortage and low-end overcapacity at the same time next year, and the whole market will be divided into two parts for internal competition.
Third, the various links in the industrial chain have become divided. Due to the decline in subsidies and the introduction of new capacity, next year's new energy vehicle industry chain will usher in a wave of price cuts. In the wave of price increases that occurred at the end of 2015, upstream raw materials were the most elastic part. In the tide of price cuts next year, we believe that the upstream raw materials will also be the largest part of the elasticity, while the lithium battery and motor links in the middle reaches are more viscous due to the binding with the OEM.
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